Thai Conflict | ||
Preceded by: South Thailand Insurgency | ||
Map of the conflict showing government control in blue, DPF and allied forces in red, and Islamist groups in green. | ||
Date | 5th December 2036 - Present | |
Location | Thailand | |
Result | Ongoing, indecisive
| |
Main belligerents | ||
Support: |
Patani National Revolutionary Front Karen National Liberation Army (Thailand) Support:
Support (alleged): |
Patani United Liberation Organisation Supported: |
Strength | ||
Total: 707,000 | Total: 296,000-361,000 | Total: 11,200-20,000 |
The Thai Conflict, also called the Thai Civil War is an ongoing conflict between the incumbent military government of Thailand, the Thai Democratic People's Front and numerous secessionist movements.
Background[]
2014 Military Coup[]
On 22 May 2014, the Royal Thai Armed Forces, led by General Prayut Chan-o-cha, commander of the Royal Thai Army (RTA), launched a coup d'état, the 12th since the country's first coup in 1932, against the caretaker government of Thailand, following six months of political crisis. The military established a junta called the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) to govern the nation.
On 24 March 2019 the first general election was held in accordance with the 2017 constitution, which was drafted under the ruling military junta. The newly formed State Power Party, consisting almost entirely of former member of the military junta, would form the new government.
The election was widely seen as unfair, both due to its rules and biased environment. The Election Commission, which was appointed by the junta-appointed National Legislative Assembly, was widely criticised for perceived biases and incompetency. Human Rights Watch cited political repression, media censorship, unequal media access, the role of the military-appointed Senate, and lack of independence and impartiality of the Election Commission as factors preventing a free and fair election.
The 2024 elections would see the SPP winning a vast majority in the legislature making Thailand a de-facto one party state. As with the 2019 election many NGOs would denounce the election.
Floodings[]
In 2025 Thailand's capital Bangkok was abandoned due to further flooding and a state of emergency was declared by the government. Approximately 15-30 million people were displaced between 2020-2025, approximately 10 million of whom are still to be homeless today. This combined with the inhumane treatment of refugees as well as ethnic minority communities, many of whom were forcefully relocated to make room for ethnic Thais, lead to rapid deterioration in the stability and popularity of the government.
2029 Election[]
In 2029 mass protests broke out over the alleged rigging of the general election. Under a great deal of pressure from the international community as well as from the civilian population elections were re-held on the 2nd December 2030. The Pheu Thai Party would lead the new government. The military however retained its autonomy and, with the aid of the Thai National Party, actively worked to disrupt the new governments operation.
Decent into Violence[]
To this effect the humanitarian situation in Thailand only worsened. By 2034 popularity and faith in the democratic system and parties began to wain with many supporting both the military and various leftist groups to cease control and restore order to the country. Secessionist groups also began arming themselves with substantial aid from foreign actors.
In 2035 protests turned violent with the supporters of the National Party burning a Maoist party building in Khon Kaen. Backlash was immediate with the deputy leader of the National Party being beaten and lynched in the centre of Khwamhwang, the new capital. The planned elections were delayed to the 5th December 2036 due to the violence.
On the night before the 2036 elections the Military ceased control of the legislature, as well as other government buildings across the country, reestablishing the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO).
The next day the Democratic People's Front (DPF) was formed from a coalition of 4 major anti-junta leftist groups. An ultimatum was issued to the NCPO to dissolve and continue with the 2036 elections. The ultimatum was rejected at 6:00pm on the 5th December 2036 officially starting the conflict.